Electoral Calculus is one of those websites that politicos like to look at. It takes opinion polls and election results and uses that information to predict the outcome of the next general election in parliamentary seats.
At the moment it is predicting that Labour have a 100% chance of winning Camberwell and Peckham, a 97.9% chance of winning Dulwich and West Norwood, and......wait for it....a 71% chance of winning Bermondsey and Old Southwark. That last result would be a very significant Labour gain. It gives the Lib Dems just a 22% chance of winning.
Now I accept that no opinion poll or prediction matters really - it is only the election result itself which counts. And there are always local factors which can affect any result.
But I have to say it certainly gives me a lift to see how Labour support is firming up in Southwark. And I dare say it must be sending a cold shiver down the spines of some other politicians and political parties.
You can follow Electoral Calculus here
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1 comment:
Quite. What a wonderful sight to behold the awful Simon Hughes losing his seat.
Rev Graeme Hancocks
Bingley
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